Prediction for the top selling tablets in 2011 (the numbers)

Richard Fieldhouse (12/05/11)

The Numbers Game

There have been some pretty bullish estimates for the size of the whole tablet market for 2011, but I'm going to run with a figure of 35 to 40 million - rather below the average.

Demand for this class of product, which is after all a luxury gadget to many, is going to take a big hit from the effects of recession. And on the supply side, it looks as if the Japanese earthquake might well have further squeezed suppliers who were already working close to capacity. Production of both the iPad and the Eee Pad Transformer is currently unable to keep up with demand. Hence the lower number.

The table below shows how this number might be shared out. Award marks out of ten in the comments!

Update (July 2011): International Data Corporation (IDC) have just upped their prediction for total 2011 tablet sales from 50.4 to 53.5 million. Despite a 29% sales fall in Q1 of this year compared to Q4 of 2010, the research cites the "entrance of competitive new devices in second half of 2011" for the increased estimate.

With this information, as well as a general consensus that concludes that the iPad is set to maintain its market share of 60-80% (at least for now: see here, here and here), we have decided to update our predictions as follows:

If you feel tempted to do any maths, remember that in predictions like this, the second significant figure is just for fun - the uncertainties underlying this kind of estimate are far too great. Thus, where it says that the Playbook will sell 1.2 million, this should be read as

"The Playbook might sell between 1 and 2 million - probably closer to 1 million"